Computational Psychiatry

Transdiagnostic psychiatric research on reward-guided learning has largely focused on simple associative processes, leaving it unclear whether or how higher-level processes are disrupted. Here, we studied how abstraction, the ability to extract relevant features from complex information, and metacognition, the ability to monitor and evaluate one's own mental processes, map onto specific transdiagnostic dimensions. Using an online sample (N = 249), we examined associations between these processes and three cross-culturally robust transdiagnostic dimensions derived from a large existing dataset (N = 19,505): Compulsive hypersensitivity, Social withdrawal, and Addictive behaviours. Computational modelling of an abstract representation learning task with confidence judgments revealed that Compulsive hypersensitivity was negatively associated with both abstraction ability (pboot = 0.003) and metacognitive sensitivity (pboot = 0.005), while Social withdrawal was positively associated with metacognitive sensitivity alone (pboot = 0.002). Moreover, transdiagnostic dimensions revealed more coherent associations with higher-order cognition than symptom-level analyses, highlighting the added value of examining psychopathology at the factor rather than the symptom level. These findings portray a hierarchical view of cognitive dysfunctions in psychopathology and point to representational and metacognitive processes as potential targets for transdiagnostic intervention.

Large Language Models are increasingly used in consumer-facing mental health tools, many of which claim that prompt engineering alone can ensure safe therapeutic behavior. This study evaluates that assumption by testing 20 proprietary and open-source LLMs on high-risk psychiatric scenarios, using prompts grounded in behavioral therapy principles. Prompt engineering reduced some predictable risks, such as explicit endorsement of self-harm, but consistently failed in ambiguous or clinically nuanced situations. Models frequently validated harmful statements, colluded with hallucinations, minimized symptoms, or used stigmatizing language, including in the newest and largest models. These failures reflect structural limitations such as lack of memory, insufficient contextual reasoning, and training-related biases. Prompt engineering alone is therefore insufficient for safe AI-mediated psychotherapy; clinician-guided fine-tuning, integrated safety mechanisms, and system-level oversight will be required. This work provides early evidence motivating deeper clinician-led evaluation and safety-oriented model development.

Importance: Patients who achieve remission from major depressive disorder (MDD) often face a preference-sensitive decision between continued antidepressant maintenance and discontinuation with active monitoring. Quantifying the tradeoff between depression burden and long-term medication exposure may support more individualized shared decision-making. Objective: To quantify tradeoffs between continuous antidepressant maintenance and active monitoring after MDD remission, and to identify preference thresholds favoring each strategy across relapse-risk strata. Design: Individual-level decision-analytic health-state transition model calibrated to randomized maintenance-discontinuation trials and a longitudinal first depressive episode cohort, with a 5-year time horizon. Setting: Outpatient clinical decision after completion of an 8-month continuation phase following remission from MDD. Participants: Adults in remission from MDD, represented across 4 clinically anchored relapse-risk strata ranging from very low risk after a first mild episode to high risk after highly recurrent depression. Exposures: Continuous antidepressant maintenance vs discontinuation with active monitoring and antidepressant restart after detected relapse. Main Outcomes and Measures: Severity-weighted depression-months, antidepressant medication-years, medication-years per depression-month averted, and net benefit across preference thresholds defined as the maximum additional medication-years a patient would be willing to accept to avert 1 depression-month. Results: Continuous maintenance reduced depression burden but required substantially more medication exposure, with efficiency strongly dependent on relapse risk. Medication-years per depression-month averted ranged from 11.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.8-19.6) in the very low-risk group to 1.5 (95% UI, 0.8-3.0) in the high-risk group. At a preference threshold of 3 medication-years per depression-month averted, maintenance was preferred for moderate- and high-risk patients; at a threshold of 2, only for high-risk patients; and at a threshold of 1, for no risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision-analytic model, the value of continuous antidepressant maintenance depended strongly on baseline relapse risk and patient preferences regarding long-term medication exposure. These findings provide a quantitative framework for shared decision-making about antidepressant maintenance after remission from MDD.

Background General-purpose large language models increasingly encounter emotional and therapy-like conversation, yet are not developed or evaluated as clinical systems. Existing safety evaluations rely largely on brief exchanges, although harms often unfold over extended interactions. Whether models maintain safety-relevant performance as conversations accumulate context remains unknown. Methods In this preregistered study, 400 clinician-validated statements, with or without suicidal ideation, were inserted at 0-200 speaker turns in 5 psychotherapy and 3 synthetic transcripts. Forty-nine LLMs and 8 clinicians performed the same binary classification task. Mixed-effects models estimated the effects of conversational depth, model scale, and model version on F1. Twelve top models were tested to 1,500 turns across conversational trajectories, with or without instruction restatement. Results F1 declined with depth across model families (p<0.001). Larger, newer models performed better but still degraded. Clinicians showed no decline (mean F1 0.86 at both 0 and 200 turns), but eight of nine proprietary models exceeded their performance at 200 turns. Conversational content, not length alone, explained F1 changes; the largest decrease was under adversarial context (p<0.001). Restating instructions increased F1 on therapy to near baseline (median {Delta}F1 +0.12; p<0.001; 89% median recovery) versus MSJ ({Delta}F1 +0.08; p=0.04; 38% recovery). Conclusions LLM detection of suicidal ideation degraded with conversational depth and trajectory, whereas clinician performance remained stable despite the strongest models exceeding most clinicians in absolute performance. Mental health AI safety evaluations should test sustained performance across realistic and adversarial trajectories rather than relying on short-prompt benchmarks.

Introduction Limitations of current classifications of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and bipolar disorder are evident from their overlapping symptoms, aetiologies, treatments, and outcomes, and present a barrier to novel treatment discovery. Alternative conceptualisations are needed to address nosological validity, align diagnosis to aetiology, and improve prognostication and treatment choice. We aimed to identify latent classes across the psychosis spectrum based on premorbid functioning and outcomes, and assess these in relation to genetic liability and symptom dimensions. Method Participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar disorder type 1, were ascertained from four UK clinical cohorts (total n=5,043). Latent class analysis was conducted using phenotypes not included within the diagnostic criteria, including premorbid functioning, age at illness onset, and measures of severity and course. Polygenic scores (PGS) for psychiatric disorders and behavioural traits were tested for associations with latent classes. We tested if diagnosis explained associations between PGS and classes. Results A three-class model provided the best fit. Class one had poorer premorbid functioning, lower rates of recovery, and higher PGS for schizophrenia and ADHD. Class three had the highest functioning, higher rates of psychosocial stressors before onset, higher intelligence PGS and lower PGS for psychiatric disorders. Class two was intermediate between classes one and three on measures of functioning, but was characterised by high levels of involuntary hospital admissions and high bipolar disorder PGS. Diagnosis only partially explained associations between PGS and class membership. Conclusions We identified classes across the psychosis spectrum characterised by different premorbid functioning and outcomes, that cut across diagnostic categories and captured genetic liability not explained by diagnosis. Our findings suggest alternative conceptualisations of psychotic disorders may complement diagnoses in mapping to the aetiology of these conditions, and could be useful to advance precision psychiatry.

Predicting real-world functional outcomes in schizophrenia (SCZ) remains a clinical priority, but existing models are limited by methodological constraints and a lack of established clinical utility. Cognition is a commonly used predictor, and the Normative Latent Cognitive Structure (N-LCS) approach provides a structure-informed representation that may address limitations of conventional domain-level scores. Data from two merged COBRE cohorts (163 SCZ, 180 healthy controls) were used to develop ridge regression models for economic (EF), occupational (OF), and social (SF) functioning, using N-LCS deviation metrics alongside a priori selected demographic and clinical predictors. Score-based models using MCCB domain T-scores were developed for comparison. Performance was evaluated using bootstrap-corrected AUC, balanced accuracy, and calibration for binary outcomes, and weighted kappa and log-loss for SF. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess clinical utility for the binary outcomes. The EF model achieved a corrected AUC of 0.76 and balanced accuracy of 0.73. The OF model achieved 0.72 and 0.71, respectively. The SF model showed modest performance (weighted kappa = 0.33). DCA indicated net benefit across the full threshold range for EF and above 0.37 for OF. N-LCS models demonstrated comparable or modestly superior performance to score-based models while using fewer predictors and showing better calibration for EF. These findings support the predictive utility of N-LCS for functional outcomes in SCZ and underscore the need for external validation in independent cohorts as a next step toward clinical application.

Alcohol demand is commonly assessed using hypothetical alcohol purchase tasks (APTs), from which individual demand curves are constructed and yield multiple indices of reinforcing value. Procedurally, APTs can confer participant burden, and existing brief alternatives cannot produce demand curves or derived indices. Thus, we evaluated a novel, adjusting APT that efficiently and idiographically assesses alcohol demand while preserving the benefits of a full task. Adults reporting past-six-month alcohol use (n=897) completed either the adjusting or full APT, the former utilizing a binary-search-style algorithm to administer six prices from the full APT's price set based on level of alcohol demand. The adjusting APT reduced item burden by 49% and produced well-fitting individual demand curves. Average demand intensity and elasticity estimates did not differ significantly by modality, whereas Omax and breakpoint estimates were significantly higher on the adjusting APT, though only by $3 each. All demand indices from both APTs were positively associated with alcohol use and problems, with similar magnitude by modality. Results provide support for the adjusting APT as a brief measure of alcohol demand that retains demand-curve-based indices of reinforcing value.

Background: Suicide prediction models in psychiatry often rely on purely data-driven feature selection, which can produce unstable and clinically opaque predictor sets in modest-sized samples. We developed Evidence-Based AI LASSO (EBAL), an evidence-guided regularization framework that incorporates curated clinical evidence into feature-specific penalty factors for interpretable prediction. Methods: Baseline data from 136 youth with confirmed bipolar spectrum disorder in the Greater Houston Area Bipolar Registry were analyzed using 20 candidate clinical predictors. Forty higher-level evidence documents on suicidality and related predictor domains were curated through a structured evidence synthesis workflow and indexed as an auditable evidence corpus. An open-weight large language model assigned feature-specific penalty factors using a prespecified scoring rubric, and these penalties were used to fit a weighted LASSO model. EBAL was compared with a standard evidence-agnostic LASSO using nested leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: For suicidal ideation, EBAL achieved an AUROC of 0.768, balanced accuracy of 0.757, sensitivity of 0.758, and specificity of 0.757. The standard LASSO achieved an AUROC of 0.760 and balanced accuracy of 0.715. EBAL improved balanced accuracy (+0.042, p=0.010) and Matthews correlation coefficient (+0.079, p=0.010), while retaining fewer stable predictors than standard LASSO (11/20 vs 18/20). The strongest positive predictors were current depressed mood, duration of mood disorder illness, and comorbid generalized anxiety disorder. For suicidal behavior, both models performed near chance and retained all candidate predictors. Limitations: The study was cross-sectional, single-site, and modest in sample size, with no external validation cohort. Conclusions: EBAL produced a sparser and more clinically coherent model for suicidal ideation in pediatric bipolar disorder, but did not improve prediction of suicidal behavior. These findings support evidence-guided regularization as a transparent strategy for aligning psychiatric prediction models with prior clinical knowledge while preserving interpretability.

A clinician guiding a stroke patient through a 45-minute rehabilitation session, a coach planning a training day, a teacher choosing the order of practice problems, they all face the same question: "given everything practiced so far, what should the next trial be?" The motor-learning literature offers two coarse answers, blocked and interleaved ("random") practice, with a well-known dissociation, blocked practice gives faster acquisition but worse retention, while interleaved practice gives the opposite. We argue that this dissociation is not a fixed property of practice schedules but a shadow of a richer structure. In particular, for a learner whose memory has a fast shared component and slower context-specific components, the best schedule should be a function of the learners current internal state and the time remaining before the retention probe. We make this precise in a minimal two-context fast-slow learner model whose optimal schedules can be computed exactly for short sessions and approximated by a structured beam-search upper bound for longer ones. The optimal schedule is not blocked, not interleaved, and not a single rule; it is a family of schedules determined by how much retention is weighted relative to acquisition. The family has three regimes (alternating, mixed, blocked-with-late-correction) and for long sessions, the optimal schedule has an interpretable structure -- exploit one context, repair the neglected one, then interleave to lock in retention. We then investigate whether a reinforcement-learning teacher, observing only the learners actions and errors without access to their internal memory states, can learn these optimal policies from interaction alone. Comparing these learned policies against the exact optima, we show that a model-free agent (PPO) recovers the short-horizon schedules and the long-horizon block-repair-interleave motif in the intermediate regime, but the benchmark also exposes a sharp failure in the acquisition-dominated regime, where PPO collapses to pure blocking and misses a sparse terminal correction. A warm-start diagnostic shows this failure is a genuine metastability of policy gradients rather than a tuning artifact, with blocked-plus-switch and pure-blocked acting as competing attractors that PPO cannot stabilize between. A hyperparameter sweep over observation history reveals that the agent requires very little behavioral context to plan optimally, demonstrating that partial observability is not a major barrier to finding optimal practice schedules. Finally, we discuss the implications of our framework for motor adaptation and contextual interference, offering practical insights on how instructors can design finite practice sessions to favor long-term retention.

Transitive inference (TI) is the ability to reason about transitive relationships in an ordered set of items (e.g., if A>B and B>C, then A>C). TI is widely held to depend on a linear representation of the serial (rank) order of those items. By what computational mechanism is such an ordering constructed during learning, and how is it used to make choices that obey transitivity? Here we take a minimalist approach, applying least-squares estimation (LSE) to a serial learning task commonly used to test TI in humans and animals. In this formulation, LSE computes a linear classifier that maps task conditions onto behavioral outcomes. This algorithm makes no explicit assumptions about transitivity or serial order, yet it reproduces key empirical features of TI; namely, the ability to generalize beyond the training set, and a symbolic distance effect (SDE) in performance accuracy. Applying the classifier to individual items produces an internally ordered representation of rank from which both generalization and the SDE naturally emerge. The approach also yields a decision mechanism, in the form of a differencing operation, for selecting the correct item from any pair. These findings reframe TI as a linear classification problem, challenging conventional assumptions about the cognitive mechanisms required for transitive reasoning.

The emotional content of suicide notes is typically examined using categorical coding, where each labeled passage is treated in isolation from its surrounding language. In contrast, dimensional models of psychopathology propose that affective content varies along continuous gradients. We evaluated this proposition directly. Excerpts from 884 annotated suicide notes were embedded in a semantic space defined solely by their linguistic properties, and we investigated whether human-assigned emotion labels changed smoothly across this space. They did: affective tone showed clear spatial autocorrelation (Moran's $I = 0.18$, $z = 19.68$, $p < 0.001$), an effect that replicated across three different encoders and remained after removing all within-note dependencies. Emotions occupied recognizable yet overlapping regions rather than forming distinct clusters and varied substantially in how tightly they were concentrated: love and hopelessness appeared with similar frequency, but love was far more localized ($z = 15.7$ versus $10.8$). Among all emotions, hopelessness was the most linguistically diffuse, implying that a single categorical label is capturing multiple, qualitatively different manifestations of suicidal distress.

Inverse reinforcement learning can recover reward functions from observed behavior, but interpreting those rewards remains a fundamental challenge for understanding intelligent behavior and decision-making. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework for reward interpretation that combines reward-function analysis, latent mode assignments, and short-history behavioral analysis to infer latent motivations and behavioral dynamics. As a proof-of-concept, we instantiated the framework using switching inverse reinforcement learning on a large-scale dataset of multi-agent social interactions. Our framework interpreted the learned latent modes as cautious and volatile motivational profiles, demonstrating that recovered reward functions can reveal distinct patterns of behavioral dynamics. More broadly, these findings suggest that the proposed framework provides a promising approach for reverse-engineering and interpreting latent rewards underlying intelligent behavior and decision-making.

Attention abilities, that are critical for most real-life cognitive task, can vary greatly across individuals. A plethora of behavioral and neural metric are commonly utilized to quantify attention; however, these often yield inconsistent and non-replicable results, raising questions as to which measures reliably account for and capture individual differences. To address this tension, here we employed a within-subject cross-paradigm design and quantified both behavioral and EEG-based neural measures associated with attention functioning, to test which measures converged across a gradient of artificial and ecological tasks. We found Inter-Subject Correlation (ISC), which quantifies the similarity in the pattern of neural response across individuals, captured consistent individual differences across both an artificial (Auditory Oddball) and ecological (Attention to Speech) task, with some correlation with performance. Moreover, we found that P300 neural responses to surprising events were qualitatively similar across artificial and ecological tasks, supporting their generalization across contexts. Interestingly, traditional cognitive-behavioral measures of attention - both from speeded response-time tasks and self-report of ADHD symptoms (ASRS) were not correlated with each other nor did they explain variance in neural metrics, nor were they explained by variation in general cognitive abilities (working memory or fluid intelligence). While these results demonstrate the shortcomings of many established measures of attention to generalize across contexts, they also point to the potential of neural measures, and specifically ISC, to serve as reliable indicators of individual differences and to bridge the gap between artificial and ecological studies of attention functioning.

Schizophrenia is associated with cognitive impairments, including deficits in implicit learning. Probabilistic serial reaction time tasks (SRTT) offer an objective approach to characterizing these deficits through both motor execution (ME) and motor imagery (MI), the mental simulation of movement without physical action. Whether implicit probabilistic sequence learning is impaired across both modalities in schizophrenia remains poorly understood. Thirty individuals with schizophrenia (ME: n=12; MI: n=13) and 40 healthy controls (ME: n=20; MI: n=20) completed an auditory probabilistic SRTT. Symptom severity was assessed with the PANSS and cognitive functioning with the MCCB. Healthy controls demonstrated a robust signature of implicit probabilistic sequence learning, whereas participants with schizophrenia exhibited weaker and less consistent learning signatures, particularly during motor imagery. Sensitivity to probabilistic structure differed significantly between groups during motor execution but not motor imagery. Participants with schizophrenia also showed significantly longer reaction times than controls across both modalities, consistent with generalized psychomotor slowing. Greater PANSS-General severity was associated with greater deviation from the probabilistic learning patterns observed in healthy controls during ME, whereas higher MCCB verbal learning scores were associated with greater similarity to these learning patterns during MI. These findings indicate that implicit probabilistic sequence learning is impaired in schizophrenia across both motor execution and motor imagery, and that these deficits are meaningfully associated with clinical symptom severity and cognitive functioning.

Cognitive flexibility is an executive function that allows individuals to adjust behaviour in response to changing environmental demands. We assessed volitional switching under uncertainty, without rule-based learning, in the Change Your Mind task. Nineteen patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), 19 patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and matched control participants (20 per group) completed the task whilst undergoing a functional MRI scan. The task was a two-alternative forced choice paradigm where each stimulus was presented twice successively, with spurious feedback following the first presentation. This allowed participants the opportunity to repeat or change their response. Participants with ADHD changed their response more frequently than controls following a previously correct response, associated with reduced accuracy on the second trial. This was accompanied with smaller differences between change and repeat trials in the superior frontal gyrus, paracingulate gyrus and frontal pole compared to controls. Participants with OCD did not differ from healthy controls in their performance but exhibited greater activity on both change and repeat trials in the pre- and postcentral gyri than controls. These results point to distinct neurobehavioural differences in patients with ADHD and OCD underlying what is often termed more broadly inflexible behaviour.

Background: Serotonin has been implicated in cognitive flexibility and pathological perseverative thinking (PT), including rumination, worry, and obsessions. However, evidence remains fragmented across pharmacological manipulations, clinical populations, and outcome measures. This multilevel meta-analysis examined whether serotonergic interventions influence PT and cognitive flexibility. Methods: Preregistered and following PRISMA guidelines, we synthesized studies investigating three classes of serotonergic manipulations: acute tryptophan depletion (ATD), serotonin elevation via selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and classic serotonergic psychedelics. Three multilevel random-effects meta-analyses with cluster-robust variance estimation were conducted: (A) effects of ATD on cognitive flexibility (N = 266; 10 effect sizes), (B) effects of serotonin elevation on cognitive flexibility (N = 654; 15 effect sizes), and (C) effects of serotonin elevation on pathological perseverative thinking (N = 1,100; 20 effect sizes). Across analyses, the total sample comprised 2,030 participants and 45 effect sizes. Results: ATD did not significantly impair cognitive flexibility (g = 0.15, 95% CI [-0.07, 0.38], p = .23), and no moderation by task type, sex, or age was observed. Serotonin elevation similarly did not improve cognitive flexibility (g = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.36, 0.22], p = .63), with no significant performance differences emerging between SSRIs, classical psychedelics, or tryptophan enrichment. In contrast, serotonin elevation was associated with a significant medium-to-large reduction in perseverative thinking (g = -0.58, 95% CI [-0.76, -0.41], p < .001). Notably, while both pharmacological classes effectively reduced cognitive rigidity, SSRIs demonstrated a marginally smaller magnitude of symptom reduction compared to acute psilocybin interventions (p = .081). Furthermore, samples with a higher proportion of female participants showed larger reductions in perseverative thinking ({beta} = -1.86, p = .014), while worries exhibited marginally smaller reductions relative to obsessions ({beta} = 0.42, p = .055). Publication bias tests were non-significant across analyses. Conclusions: Serotonergic interventions robustly reduce perseverative thinking but do not consistently alter performance on laboratory measures of cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest that serotonin may influence cognitive-emotional rigidity and the subjective experience of repetitive thought more strongly than objective executive task performance. The dissociation between task-based and phenomenological outcomes aligns with contemporary models of serotonergic plasticity and highlights perseverative thinking as a potentially transdiagnostic therapeutic target of serotonergic interventions.

Bayesian accounts of autism propose that perception is less influenced by prior expectations and more strongly driven by incoming sensory information in autistic than non-autistic individuals, with this altered balance cascading through the cognitive hierarchy to also influence higher cognitive functions. However, empirical support for these accounts remains mixed. Previous work has mostly tested these ideas in the context of objective environmental statistics, but recent work suggests that it may be subjective experience of structure, rather than structure itself, that shapes perceptual processing. Characterising these subjective experiences in autistic individuals is therefore crucial for understanding predictive processing in autism. In the present study, we thus examined subjective experience of statistical structure in autistic and non-autistic adults and tested how this experience relates to perceptual decisions. Participants were exposed to statistical regularities between action cues and visual stimuli (shapes), and we measured their speed and accuracy in reporting which shape they had seen. At the end of the study, participants were asked to estimate the probability and rate their surprise for each action-shape combination. Autistic and non-autistic participants showed similar subjective probability and surprise ratings and a comparable relationship between these ratings and perceptual decisions. Across participants, subjective ratings explained perceptual decisions better than objective structure. Together, these findings show that autistic and non-autistic adults experience statistical structure similarly, with these experiences exerting a similar influence on perceptual decisions - therefore suggesting that subjective experience plays a comparable role in predictive processing in autistic and non-autistic adults.

Background. UK clinical guidance recommends that structured risk prediction tools and risk stratification should not be used in self-harm, to predict suicide or determine who is offered treatment. Underpinning this position is the premise that routinely collected health data contain no useful predictive signal, which has received little direct scrutiny. Objective. To test whether routinely collected electronic health record data can distinguish groups at higher and lower risk of severe outcomes following paracetamol overdose. Methods. We analysed 4,095 adults presenting to NHS Lothian emergency departments with paracetamol overdose (2017-2023). Elastic-net logistic regression was fitted to 37 routinely collected electronic health record features to predict a composite of death or mental health inpatient admission at 0-7, 8-30 and 31-365 days following attendance, evaluated on a held-out 20% test set with bootstrapping. Findings. Events occurred in 5.5% of patients at 0-7 days, 2.0% at 8-30 days and 7.9% at 31-365 days, dominated by mental health admission. Bootstrap AUROC 95% confidence intervals lay above 0.5 in every window (0.65-0.82, 0.63-0.90, 0.71-0.85): models ranked patients better than chance. Calibration slopes (1.04, 1.14, 1.07) were close to one. Ranking drew primarily on mental health-related features. Conclusions. Routinely collected health data carried predictive signal for severe outcomes after paracetamol overdose, although discrimination fell short of what is needed for individual-level clinical use. Clinical implications. These models are not proposed for clinical deployment; however, treating risk prediction as a settled question will redirect research efforts, potentially excluding this patient population from machine learning advances driving improvements in care in other medical specialties.

Background Individuals with severe mental illness (SMI), including schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) and bipolar disorder (BD), have been shown to have an elevated risk of violent perpetration. However, no population-wide study has systematically examined how this risk varies across psychiatric comorbidity patterns and specific violent crime types. Methods Using the first nationwide Norwegian registry linkage comprising mental health and crime data, we included 3,612,215 individuals aged 15-79 years living in Norway on Jan 1, 2008, and followed them until Dec 31, 2022. We estimated absolute and relative risks (RRs) of violent offending overall and by specific violent crimes among individuals with SSD and BD. To capture clinically relevant comorbidity patterns, we included substance use disorders (SUD), common personality disorders (PD), and hyperkinetic disorders (ADHD). RR models were adjusted first for sex and age, and subsequently for co-occurring mental disorders. Findings At the population level, individuals with SMI accounted for a minority of violent offenders (SSD: 8.7%; BD: 4.6%), whereas SUD was present among a substantially larger proportion (36.8%). Absolute risk of violent offending increased markedly with psychiatric comorbidity, from e.g., 5.0% among individuals with SSD alone to 43.9% for SSD combined with SUD and PD. Compared with the remaining general population, the RR of violent offending for SSD decreased from 6.58 (95% CI 6.4-6.8, adjusted for sex and age), to 2.0 (2.0-2.1) after further adjustment for other mental disorders. Similar attenuation patterns were observed across specific violent crime types, although varying in magnitude. In contrast to SMI, elevated risks associated with SUD remained substantial after full adjustment across most crime categories. Interpretation The association between SMI and violent offending is strongly influenced by psychiatric comorbidity, particularly SUD, and varies across crime types. Our findings underscore the importance of identifying and treating co-occurring mental disorders and substance use, both in the clinical management of SMI and in population-level violence prevention strategies.

Objective Psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSS) are common among children and youth. These symptoms may be clinically significant as studies indicate a heightened risk of mental health disorders, in general, as well as psychotic disorders, specifically, in youth that endorse PSS. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the longitudinal association between PSS in children and youth and subsequent mental health diagnosis. Methods A comprehensive search of Ovid Medline, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify longitudinal studies that: (i) assess PSS at a baseline timepoint, (ii) in individuals under 25 years, and (iii) assess mental health disorder diagnosis using a structured assessment at a later time point in the same sample. We conducted a meta-analysis and calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) for mental health and psychotic disorders using random-effects models. Post-hoc meta-regressions were performed to examine the influence of a number of moderators on the relationship between earlier recorded PSS and subsequent mental health disorders or psychotic disorders. Results The search yielded 41 eligible studies of which 25 were included in the meta-analysis. Most included studies assessed PSS using brief self-report measures and recruited their samples from clinical or community settings. Among children and youth without an identified mental health diagnosis at baseline assessment, baseline PSS were associated with a 2-fold (OR = 2.07, CI = 1.61 - 2.66, I2 = 86.92%, p < 0.0001) increased risk of meeting diagnostic criteria for subsequent mental health disorder diagnosis and a 3-fold increased risk (OR = 3.11, CI = 2.11 - 4.58, (I2 = 60.93%, p < 0.0090) of meeting diagnostic criteria for a subsequent psychotic disorder diagnosis with a minimum 1 year follow-up time from baseline assessment. Meta-regression analysis indicated that study quality and sample size explained a substantial proportion of between-study heterogeneity for psychotic disorder outcomes. Conclusions Our results suggest that administration of simple self-report measures of PSS in both clinical and community settings may be helpful to identify children and youth at higher risk of subsequently meeting criteria for a mental disorder generally, and for a severe mental illness (i.e., psychotic disorder), specifically. Future longitudinal studies should focus on improving study design characteristics to increase confidence in identified longitudinal associations. The results of our work suggests that integration of self-report measures of PSS may be useful in a variety of settings to identify youth at increased risk of subsequent mental illness.